Recent Publications

Includes work by SACEMA Researchers, Students, Postdoctoral Fellows, Research Associates and Fellows from 2007 to 2023

Vale G, Hargrove JW, Torr SJ (2022) Identification of the area sampled by traps: a modelling study with tsetse Preprint

Niyukuri D, Nyandwi J, Kamatari O, Uwizeyimana C, Mikaza C, Barengayabo M (2022) A leap to non-communicable diseases epidemic in Burundi: overall trends of the disproportionate burden Preprint

Kassanjee R, Welte A, Otwombe KN, Jaffer M, Milovanic M, Hlongwane KE, Puren A, Hill N, Mbowane V, Dunkle K, Gray G, Abdullah F, Jewkes R, Coetzee J (2022) HIV incidence estimation among female sex workers in South Africa: a multiple methods analysis of cross-sectional survey data Lancet HIV

Bolton L, Bekker A, Govender NP, van Schalkwyk C, Whitelaw A, Dramowski A (2022) Neonatal sepsis: challenges in data access, harmonization and analysis to inform empiric antibiotic recommendations in South African neonatal units DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34471.42407 Preprint

Meyer-Rath G, Hounsell RA, Pulliam JRC, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Moultrie H, Silal SP (2022) The Role of Modelling and Analytics in South African COVID-19 Planning and Budgeting Preprint

Grebe E, Yu AE, Bravo MD, Welte A, Bruhn RL, Stone M, Green V, Williamson P, Feldstein LR, Jones JM, Busch MP, Custer B, (2022) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States prior to the Delta and Omicron-associated surges: a retrospective cohort study of repeat blood donors The Journal of Infectious Diseases

Sempa J, Grebe E, Welte A (2022) Quantitative interpretation of Sedia LAg Assay test results after HIV diagnosis PLOS One

Niyukuri D, Sinzinkayo D, Troth EV, Oduma CO, Barengayabo M, Ndereyimana M, Holzschuh, Vera-Arias C, Gebre Y, Badu K, Nyandwi J, Baza D, Juma E, Köpfli C (2022) Performance of highly sensitive and conventional rapid diagnostic tests for clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections, and hrp2/3 deletion status in Burundi PLOS Global Public Health

Bingham J, Tempia S, Moultrie H, Viboud C, Jassat W, Cohen C, Pulliam JRC (2022) Estimating the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 in South Africa during the first four waves using multiple measures of incidence for public and private sectors across four waves

Hargrove JW, Vale G (2022) Stalled malaria control; root causes and possible remedies Preprint

Ousman K, Thumath M, Kckay G, Niyukuri D, Ombeni M, Kabego L, Banzua B, Mangala S, Tatabod R, Mirindi P, Talisuna A, Houndjo B, Baller A, Keïta M (2022) Evaluation of a health systems strengthening intervention to improve Ebola Virus Disease infection prevention and control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Journal of Global Health Reports

Hope A, Mugenyi A, Esterhuizen J, Tirados I, Cunningham L, Garrod G, Lehane MJ, Longbottom J, Mangwiro TNC, Opiyo M, Stanton M, Torr SJ, Vale GA, Waiswa C, Selby R (2022) Scaling up of tsetse control to eliminate Gambian sleeping sickness in northern Uganda PLoS Neglected Tropical Disease

Pontali E, Silva DR, Marx, FM, Caminero JA, Centis R, Muhwa JC, Tiberi S, Migliori GB, (2022) Breathing back better! A state of the art on the benefits of functional evaluation and rehabilitation of post-tuberculosis and post-COVID lungs Archivos de Bronconeumología

Seelal S, Groome M, Govender N, Pulliam JRC, Ramadan PC, Jassat W, Leonard E, Moultrie H, Meyer-Rath KG, Ramkrishna W, Langa T, Furumele T, Moonasar D, Cohen C, Walaza S (2022) Leveraging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa The South African Medical Journal

Azam JM, Pang X, Are EA, Pulliam JRC, Ferrari MJ (2022) Models and modelling practices for assessing the impact of outbreak response interventions to human vaccine-preventable diseases (1970-2019) - A systematic review Medrxiv Preprint

Bingham J, Cable R, Coleman C, Glatt TN, Grebe E, Mhlanga, Nyano C, Pieterson N, Swanevelder R, Swarts A, Sykes W, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M, Welte A (2022) Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in South Africa in March 2022 Preprint

Niyukuri D, Sinzinkayo D, Troth E, Oduma C, Barengayabo M, Ndereyimana M, Holzschuh A, Vera-Arias CA, Gebre Y, Badu K, Nyandwi J, Baza D, Juma E, Koepfli C (2022) High sensitivity of a novel rapid test for the diagnosis of clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections in a high transmission setting in Burundi Preprint

Grebe E, Yu EA, MD Bravo, Welte A, Bruhn RL, Stone M, Green V, Williamson PC, Feldstein LR, Jones JM, Busch MP, Custer B (2022) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States prior to the Delta and Omicron-associated surges: a retrospective cohort study of repeat blood donors Reprint

Lukwa AT, Siya A, Odunitan-Wayas FA, Alaba O (2022) Decomposing maternal socioeconomic inequalities in Zimbabwe; leaving no woman behind MC Pregnancy & Childbirth

Pulliam JRC, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groome MJ, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H (2022) Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa Science

Lukwa AT, Odunitan-Wayas F, Lambert EV, Alaba OA, and on behalf of the “Savings for Health” IDRC Collaborators (2022) Can Informal Savings Groups Promote Food Security and Social, Economic and Health Transformations, Especially among Women in Urban Sub-Saharan Africa: A Narrative Systematic Review Sustainability

Cable R, Coleman C, Glatt T, Grebe E, Mhlanga L, Nyano C, Pieterson N, Swanevelder R, Swarts A, Sykes W, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M, Welte A (2022) Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in eight provinces of South Africa in November 2021

Moore DP, Hesseling AC, Marx FM (2022) Prolonged-course tuberculosis treatment or secondary prevention for those at high risk of recurrence? Clinical Microbiology and Infection

Perofsky AC, Tempia S, Bingham J, Maslo C, Toubkin M, Laubscher A, Walaza S, Pulliam JRC, Viboud C, Cohen C (2022) The direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on private healthcare utilization in South Africa, March 2020 – September 2021 Clinical Infectious Diseases

Marx FM; Meehan S-A; Jivan D; Dunbar R; Hoddinott G; Hesseling AC; Osman M; (2022) Use of interactive messaging to reduce pre-diagnosis loss to follow-up for TB care The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease

de Villiers AK; Dye D; Yaesoubi R; Cohen T; Marx FM (2022) Spatially targeted digital chest radiography to reduce tuberculosis in high-burden settings: A study of adaptive decision making Epidemics

Pearson CAB, Silal S, Li MWZ, Dushoff J, Bolker BM, Abbott S, van Schalkwyk C, Davies, NG, Barnard RC, Edmunds WJ, Bingham JL, Meyer-Rath G, Glass A, Wolter N, Govender N, Stevens W, Scott L, Mlisana K, Moultrie H, Pulliam JRC, (2021) Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

Sbarra AN, Rolfe S, Nguyen JQ, Earl L, Galles N, et al. (2021) Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries Nature

NA Makoah, T Tipih, MM Litabe, M Brink, JB Sempa, D Goedhals, FJ Burt (2021) A systematic review and meta-analysis of the sensitivity of antibody tests for the laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 Future Virology

Bolton L, van den Berg K, Swanevelder R, Pulliam JCR (2021) Characterising differences in red blood cell usage patterns between healthcare sectors in South Africa: 2014-2019 Blood Transfusion

Marx FM, Hauer B, Menzies NA, Haas W, Perumal N (2021) Targeting screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection towards asylum seekers from high-incidence countries – a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis BMC Public Health

Sempa J, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) Quantitative interpretation of Sedia LAg Assay test results after HIV diagnosis

Pulliam JCR, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groom M, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H (2021) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection trends in South Africa: analysis of routine surveillance data

McClinton Appollis TMA, Jonas K, Beauclair RN, Lombard CJ, Duby Z, Cheyip M, Maruping K, Dietrich J, Mathews C (2021) Early Sexual Debut and the Effects on Well-Being among South African Adolescent Girls and Young Women Aged 15 to 24 Years International Journal of Sexual Health

Niyukuri D, Chibawara T, Nyasulu PS, Delva W (2021) Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources Mathematics math9212645

Kinyoki D, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Bhattacharjee NV, Kassebaum NJ, Hay SI, et al (2021) Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018 Nature Medicine

Mhlanga L, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) Smoothing age/time structure of HIV prevalence, for optimal use in synthetic cohort based incidence estimation

Bolton L, van den Berg K, Swanevelder R, Pulliam JCR (2021) Mind the gap: Patterns of red blood cell product usage in South Africa, 2014 - 2019 The South African Medical Journal

Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, HudaI M, Jensen HT, Keogh-Brown M, Khalid M, Sweeney S, Torres-Rueda S, CHiL COVID-19 Working Group, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Eggo RM, Vassall A, Jit M (2021) COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness PLOS Medicine

Migliori GB, Marx FM, Ambrosino N, Zampogna E, Schaaf HS, van der Zalm MM, Allwood B, Byrne AL, Mortimer K, Wallis RS, Fox GJ, Leung CC, Chakaya JM, Seaworth B, Rachow A, Marais BJ, Furin J, Akkerman OW, Al Yaquobi F, Amaral AFS, Borisov S, Caminero JA, Carvalho ACC, Chesov, D, Codecasa LR, Teixeira RC, Dalcolmo MP, Datta S, Dinh-Xuan AT, Duarte R, Evans CA, García-García JM, Günther G, Hoddinott G, Huddart S, Ivanova O, Laniado-Laborín R, Manga S, Manika K, Mariandyshev A, Mello FCQ, Mpagama SG, Muñoz-Torrico M, Nahid P, Ong CWM, Palmero DJ, Piubello A, Pontali E, Silva DR, Singla R, Spanevello A, Tiberi S, Udwadia ZF, Vitacca M, Centis R, D´Ambrosio L, Sotgiu G, Lange C, Visca, D. (2021) Clinical standards for the assessment, management and rehabilitation of post-TB lung disease International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease

van Niekerk DD, Oosthuizen MM, du Toit F, Snoep JL (2021) Estimating merozoite release number and reinvasion efficiency in Plasmodium falciparum cell culture Transactions of the Royal Society of South Africa

Granich R, Gupta S, Williams B (2021) Human immunodeficiency virus funding and access to treatment in sub-Saharan Africa International Journal of STD & AIDS doi/10.1177/09564624211042287

Azam JM, Saitta B, Bonner K, Ferrari MJ, Pulliam JCR (2021) Modelling the relative benefits of using the measles vaccine outside cold chain for outbreak response Vaccine

Hendrickx DM, Delva W, Hens N (2021) Influence of sexual risk behaviour and STI co-infection dynamics on the evolution of HIV set point viral load in MSM Epidemics

Stone M, Grebe E, Sulaeman H, Germanio CD, Dave H, Kelly K, Biggerstaff B, Crews BO, Tran N, Jerome KR, Deny TN, Hogema B, Jones JM, Thornburg N, Simmons G2, Krajden M, Kleinman S, Dumont LJ, Busch MP (2021) Evaluation of commercially available high-throughput SARS-CoV-1 2 serological assays for serosurveillance and related applications

Delva W, Dominic EM, Beauclair R, Ouifki R, Kroon M, Volmink H, Dorkin E (2021) Four-week forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic trajectories in South Africa, Chile, Peru and Brazil: a model evaluation

Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Adetokunboh O et al (2021) Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Lancet

Various authors (2021) Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Lancet

Facente SN, Agyei L, Maher AD, Mahy M, Dalal S, Lowrance D, Grebe E, Marsh K (2021) Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Non-Incidence Surveillance Use Cases: A systematic review

Adetokunboh OO, JulianaIwu-Jaja CC, Nnaji CA, Ndwandwe D (2021) Missed opportunities for vaccination in Africa Current Opinion in Immunology

Galles N, Liu PY, Updike RL, Fullman N, Nguyen J, Rolfe S, et al (2021) Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1 The Lancet

Hargrove JW, Vale GA (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): red flag or red herring? Medical and Veterinary Entomology

Osman M, C van Schalkwyk, P, Naidoo, et al (2021) Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register Scientific Reports

Are EB, Hargrove JW, Dushoff J (2021) Does Counting Different Life Stages Impact Estimates for Extinction Probabilities for Tsetse (Glossina spp)? Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

Milovanovic M, Jewkes R, Otwombe K, Jaffera M, Hopkins K, Hlongwe K, Mathaludi M, Mbowanea V, Graya H, Dunkle K, Huntg G, Welteh A, Kassanjeeh R, Slingersj N, Vanleeuwj L, Pureng A, Kinghorna A, Martinsona N, Abdullahj F, Coetzeea J (2021) Community-led cross-sectional study of social and employment circumstances, HIV and associated factors amongst female sex workers in South Africa: study protocol Global Health Action

Cromwell EA, Osborne JCP, Unnasch TR, Basáñez M, Gass KM, Barbre KA, Hill E, et al. (2021) Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Horn S, Snoep JL, van Niekerk DD (2021) Uncovering the effects of heterogeneity and parameter sensitivity on within-host dynamics of disease: malaria as a case study BMC Bioinformatics

Hendrickx DM, Sousa JD, Libin PJK, Delva W, Liesenborgs J, Hens N, Müller V, Vandamme A (2021) Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon) Scientific Reports

Mhlanga L, Vermeulen M, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) SARS CoV 2 Infection Fatality Rate Estimates for South Africa

Nichols JD, Bogich TL, Howerton E, Bjørnstad ON, Borchering RK, Ferrari M, Haran M, Jewell C, Pepin KM, Probert WJM, Pulliam JRC, Runge MC, Tildesley M, Viboud C, Shea K (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making PLOS Biology

van Schalkwyk C, Moodley J, Welte A, Johnson LF (2021) Modelling the impact of prevention strategies on cervical cancer incidence in South Africa International Journal of Cancer

Kent BA, Holman C, Amoako E, Antonietti A, Azam JM, Ballhausen H, Bediako Y, Belasen AM, Carneiro CFD, Chen Y, Compeer EB, Connor CAC, Crüwell S, Debat H, Dorris E, Ebrahimi H, Erlich JC, Fernández-Chiappe F, Fischer F, Gazda MA, Glatz T, Grabitz P, Heise V, Kent DG, Lo H, McDowell G, Mehta D, Neumann WJ, Neves K, Patterson M, Penfold NC, Piper SK, Puebla I, Quashie PK, Carolina, Quezada CP, Riley JL, Rohmann JL, Saladi S, Schwessinger B, Siegerink B, Stehlik P, Tzilivaki A, Umbers KDL, Varma A, Walavalkar K, de Winde CM, Zaza C, Weissgerber T (2021) Empowering Early Career Researchers to Improve Science

Pearson CAB, Pulliam JCR, Eggo RM (2021) Pre-vaccination testing could expand coverage of two-dose COVID vaccines Wellcome Open Research

Atuhaire L, Adetokunboh O, Shumba C, Nyasulu PS (2021) Effect of community-based interventions targeting female sex workers along the HIV care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis Systematic Reviews

Adetokunboh, O.O, Z.E. Mthombothi, E.M. Dominic, S. Djomba-Njankou, J.R.C. Pulliam (2021) African based researchers’ output on models for the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions: A scoping review PLOS One

South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (2021) COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for the third wave, including the impact of the Delta variant of concern n/a

Mathews C, Cheyip M, Beauclair R, Puren A, Lombard C, Jonas K, Ayalew KA, D Govindasamy, Kuo C, Dietrich J, Abdullah F, Gray G (2021) HIV care coverage among HIV-positive adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: Results from the HERStory Study South African Medical Journal doi:10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i5.15351

Binati RL, Du Toit M, Snoep JL, Salvetti E, Torriani S (2021) Transcriptional and Metabolic Response of Wine-Related Lactiplantibacillus plantarum to Different Conditions of Aeration and Nitrogen Availability Fermentation

Hargrove JW, Van Sickle J, Vale GA, Lucas ER (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): An artefact of inappropriate analysis PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Niyukuri D, Nyasulu P, Delva W (2021) Assessing the uncertainty around age-mixing patterns in HIV transmission inferred from phylogenetic trees PLOS One

van Schalkwyk C, Dorrington RE, Seatlhodi T, Velasquez C, Feizzadeh A, Johnson LF (2021) Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts Scientific Reports

Youngji J, Jamieson L, Edoka I, Long L , S Sheetal Silal, Pulliam J.C.R, Moultrie H, Sanne I, Meyer-Rath G, Nichols BE (2021) Cost-effectiveness of Remdesivir and Dexamethasone for COVID-19 Treatment in South Africa Open Forum Infectious Diseases doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab040

Sykes W, Mhlanga L, Swanevelder R, Glatt TN, Grebe E, Coleman C, Pieterson N, Cable R, Welte A, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M (2021) Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Free State provinces of South Africa in January 2021 doi: 10.21203/ Preprint

Mojica-Benavidesa M , van Niekerk DD , Mijalkovc M , Snoep JL, Mehliga B, Volpea G , Mattias G, CB Adiels (2021) Intercellular communication induces glycolytic synchronization waves between individually oscillating cells Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Are EB, Colijn C (2021) Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa 2 under different levels of lockdown

Motaze NV, Mthombothi ZE, Adetokunboh O, Hazelbag CM, Saldarriaga EM, Mbuagbaw L, Wiysonge CS (2021) The Impact of Rubella Vaccine Introduction on Rubella Infection and Congenital Rubella Syndrome: A Systematic Review of Mathematical Modelling Studies Vaccines

Vanden Driessche K, Mahlobo PZ, Venter R, Caldwell J, Jennings K, Diacon AH, Cotton MF, de Groot R, Hens N, Marx FM, Warren RM, Mishra H, Theron G (2021) Face masks in the post-COVID-19 era: a silver lining for the damaged tuberculosis public health response? Lancet Respiratory Medicine doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00020-5

Cork MA, Henry NJ, Watson S, Croneberger AJ, Baumann M, Letourneau ID, et al (2021) Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems BMC Medicine

Ross JM, Badje A, Rangaka MX, Walker AS, Shapiro AE, Thomas KK, Anglaret X, Eholie S, Gabillard D, Boulle A, Maartens G, Wilkinson RJ, Ford N, Golub JE, Williams BG, Barnabas RV (2021) Isoniazid preventive therapy plus antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data Lancet HIV doi: 10.1016/s2352-3018(20)30299-x

Czachu MV, Todd M, Loureiro GT, Azam JM, Nyeleka S, Alblas A, Davies SJ (2021) Opening the floor for discussion: A perspective on how scholars perceive attitudes to science in policymaking in South Africa South African Journal of Science

Dye, C., R.C.H. Cheng, J.S Dagpunar, & B.G. Williams (2020) The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe. Royal Society Open Science 7(11) doi: 10.1098/rsos.201726

Awine, T., & S.P. Silal (2020) Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach. BMC Malaria Journal 19(423) doi: 10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y

Oluwagbemi, O. O., F. E. Oluwagbemi, A. Jatto, & C. Hui (2020) MAVSCOT: A fuzzy logic-based HIV diagnostic system with indigenous multi-lingual interfaces for rural Africa. PLOS ONE 15(11): e0241864 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241864

Cheng R, Dye C, Dagpunar J, Williams B (2020) Modelling Pre-Symptomatic Infectiousness in COVID-19

Deshpande, A., M.K. Miller-Petrie, P.A. Lindstedt, M.M. Baumann, K.B. Johnson, B.F. Blacker, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, I. Abdollahpour, K.H. Abegaz, O. Adetokunboh et al. (2020) Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. The Lancet Global Health 8(9):e1162-1185. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30278-3

Murray, C.J., A.Y. Aravkin, P. Zheng, C. Abbafati, K.M Abbas, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, F Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, M. Abdollahi, I. Abdollahpour , K.H Abegaz, O.O Adetokunboh, & et al. (2020) Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 396(10258):1223-1249. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2

Wang, H., K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasifard, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah , A. Abdelalim, H. Abolhassani, L.G Abreu, M.R Abrigo, A.L Abushouk, & O. Adetokunboh O et al. (2020) Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1160-1203 doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30977-6

Vos, T., S.S. Lim, C. Abbafati, K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasi, M. Abbasifard , M. Abbasi-Kangevari, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, M. Abdollahi, O. Adetokunboh & et al. (2020) Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1204-1222. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9

Murray, C.J., C. Abbafati, K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasi, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, F. Abd-Allah , M. Abdollahi, P. Abedi, A. Abedi, H. Abolhassani, V. Aboyans, O. Adetokunboh, & et al. (2020) Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1135-1159 doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31404-5

Tamuzi, J.L., B.T. Ayele, C.S Shumba, O.O. Adetokunboh, J. Uwimana-Nicol, Z.T. Haile, J. Inugu, & P.S. Nyasulu (2020) Implications of COVID-19 in high burden countries for HIV/TB: A systematic review of evidence. BMC Infectious Diseases. 20(1):1-8 doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05450-4

Azam, J.M., E.B. Are, X. Pang, M.J. Ferrari, & J.R.C. Pulliam (2020) Outbreak response intervention models of vaccine-preventable diseases in humans and foot-and-mouth disease in livestock: a protocol for a systematic review. BMJ Open 10(10) doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036172

Lee, R.H., G.A. Vale, A.M.G. Barreaux, N.C. Ellstrand, & J.W. Hargrove, & S. English (2020) Big Baby, Little Mother: Tsetse Flies Are Exceptions to the Juvenile Small Size Principle. BioEssays :2000049 doi: 10.1002/bies.202000049

Adetokunboh, O.O., & E.B. Are (2020) Distribution and Determinants of HIV Prevalence in South Africa. Annals of Epidemiology. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.08.061

Gibbs, H., Y. Liu, C.A.B. Pearson, C.I. Jarvis, C. Grundy, B.J. Quilty, C. Diamond, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, and R.M. Eggo (2020) Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications 11(5012) doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18783-0

Rees, E.M., E.S. Nightingale, Y. Jafari, N. R. Waterlow, S Clifford, C. A. B. Pearson, T. Jombart, S. R. Procter & G. M. Knight (2020) COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis BMC Medicine 18(270) doi: 10.1186/s12916-020-01726-3

Marx, F.M, T. Cohen, N.A. Menzies, J.A. Salomon, & G. Theron (2020) Cost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Global Health 8(9), e1223-e1233 doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30227-8

Deshpande, A., M.K. Miller-Petrie, P.A. Lindstedt, M.M Baumann, K.B. Johnson, B.F. Blacker, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, I. Abdollahpour, K.H. Abegaz, O.O. Adetokunboh et al. (2020) The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000- 18: a geospatial analysis. The Lancet Global Health 8(9):e1186-e1194. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30286-2

Lozano, R., N. Fullman, J.E. Mumford, M. Knight, C.M. Barthelemy, C. Abbafati, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, M. Abdollahi, A. Abedi, H. Abolhassani, O. Adetokunboh, & et al. (2020) Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 396(10258):1250-1284. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30750-9

Torres-Rueda S, Sweeney S, Bozzani F, Vassall A (2020) The health sector cost of different policy responses to COVID-19 in low- and middle- income countries

Lord, J.L., R. S. Lea, F. K. Allan, M. Byamungu, D.R. Hall, J. Lingley, F. Mramba, E. Paxton, G A. Vale, J. W. Hargrove, L. J. Morrison, S. J. Torr, & H. K. Auty (2020) Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(8): e0008288. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008288

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Kassanjee R, Pilcher C. D, Keating S. M, Facente S. N, McKinney E, Price M. A, Martin J. N, Little S, Hecht F. M, Kallas E. G, Welte A, Busch M. P, Murphy G. (2014) Independent assessment of candidate HIV incidence assays on specimens in the CEPHIA repository. AIDS. 28(16). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000429.

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Glyn A. Vale, John W. Hargrove, Philippe Solano, Fabrice Courtin, Jean-Baptiste Rayaisse, Michael J. Lehane, Johan Esterhuizen, Inaki Tirados, Stephen J. Torr. (2014) Explaining the Host-Finding Behavior of Blood-Sucking Insects: Computerized Simulation of the Effects of Habitat Geometry on Tsetse Fly Movement. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8(6): e2901. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002901

Marx F. M, Dunbar R, Enarson D. A, Williams B. G, Warren R. M, van der Spuy G. D, van Helden P. D, Beyers N. (2014) The temporal dynamics of relapse and reinfection tuberculosis after successful treatment: a retrospective cohort study. Clinical Infectious Diseases 58(12): doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu186.

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Lurie M. N, Williams B. G. (2014) Migration and Health in Southern Africa: 100 years and still circulating. Health Psychology & Behavioural Medicine 2(1). PMID: 24653964.

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Kato M, Granich R, Bui D. D, Tran H. V, Nadol P, Jacka D, Sabin K, Suthar A. B, Mesquita F, Lo Y. R, Williams B. (2013) The potential impact of expanding antiretroviral therapy and combination prevention in Vietnam: towards elimination of HIV transmission. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 63(5). doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e31829b535b.

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Vale G. A, Hargrove J. W, Chamisa A, Hall D. R, Mangwiro C, Torr S. J. (2013) Factors affecting the propensity of tsetse flies to enter houses and attack humans inside: increased risk of sleeping sickness in warmer climates. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 7(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002193.

Delva W, Meng F, Beauclair R, Deprez N, Temmerman M, Welte A, Hens N. (2013) Coital frequency and condom use in monogamous and concurrent sexual relationships in Cape Town, South Africa. J Int AIDS Soc. 2013 Apr 24;16:18034. doi: 10.7448/IAS.16.1.18034.

Nosyk B, Audoin B, Beyrer C, Cahn P, Granich R, Havlir D, Katabira E, Lange J, Lima V. D, Patterson T, Strathdee S. A, Williams B, Montaner J. (2013) Examining the evidence on the causal effect of HAART on transmission of HIV using the Bradford Hill criteria. AIDS. 27(7). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32835f1d68.

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Roxanne Beauclair, Fei Meng, Nele Deprez, Marleen Temmerman, Alex Welte, Niel Hens and Wim Delva (2013) Evaluating audio computer assisted self-interviews in urban south African communities: evidence for good suitability and reduced social desirability bias of a cross-sectional survey on sexual behaviour. BMC Medical Research Methodology 13(11). DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-13-11.

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Kama A. Wlodzimirow, Saeid Eslami, Robert A. F. M. Chamuleau, Martin Nieuwoudt, and Ameen Abu-Hanna. (2012) Prediction of Poor Outcome in Patients with Acute Liver Failure?Systematic Review of Prediction Models. Plos One 7(12). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050952.

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Wlodzimirow K. A, Eslami S, Abu-Hanna A, Nieuwoudt M, Chamuleau R. A. (2012) Systematic review: acute liver failure - one disease, more than 40 definitions. Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics 35(11). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2012.05097.x.

Usha K. Sharma, Marco Schito, Alex Welte, Christine Rousseau, Joseph Fitzgibbon, Brandon Keele, Stuart Shapiro, Andrew McMichael, and David N. Burns (2012) Workshop Summary: Novel Biomarkers for HIV Incidence Assay Development Aids Research And Human Retroviruses 28(6). doi: 10.1089/aid.2011.0332.

Lindh J. M, Goswami P, Blackburn R. S, Arnold S. E, Vale G. A, Lehane M. J, Torr S. J. (2012) Optimizing the colour and fabric of targets for the control of the tsetse fly Glossina fuscipes fuscipes. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001661.

Williams B. G. (2012) TB and HIV: deadly liaison or manageable threat? Science Translation Medicine 4(135). doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3004079.

Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Kajunguri D, Vale G. A, Torr S. J. (2012) Modeling the control of trypanosomiasis using trypanocides or insecticide-treated livestock. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001615.

Wlodzimirow K, Eslami S, Abu-Hanna A, Nieuwoudt M, Chamuleau R.A.F.M. (2012) Acute Liver Failure - What Is It? Hepatology 55( 4). DOI: 10.1002/hep.25519.

Bellan S. E, Pulliam J. R, Scott J. C, Dushoff J, MMED Organizing Committee. (2012) How to make epidemiological training infectious. Plos Biology 10(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001295.

Cari van Schalkwyk, Madeleine Cule, Alex Welte, Paul van Helden, Gian van der Spuy, and Pieter Uys. (2012) Towards Eliminating Bias in Cluster Analysis of TB Genotyped Data. PLoS One 7(3). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034109.

Kranzer K, Govindasamy D, van Schaik N, Thebus E, Davies N, Zimmermann M, Jeneker S, Lawn S, Wood R, Bekker L. G. (2012) Incentivized recruitment of a population sample to a mobile HIV testing service increases the yield of newly diagnosed cases, including those in need of antiretroviral therapy. HIV Medicine. 13(2). doi: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2011.00947.x.

Beauclair R, Kassanjee R, Temmerman M, Welte A, Delva W. (2012) Age-disparate relationships and implications for STI transmission among young adults in Cape Town, South Africa. The European Journal Of Contraception and Reproductive Health Care 17(1). doi: 10.3109/13625187.2011.644841.

Granich R, Kahn J. G, Bennett R, Holmes C. B, Garg N, Serenata C, Sabin M. L, Makhlouf-Obermeyer C, De Filippo Mack C, Williams P, Jones L, Smyth C, Kutch K. A, Ying-Ru L, Vitoria M, Souteyrand Y, Crowley S, Korenromp EL, Williams B. G. (2012) Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050. PLoS One 7(2). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030216.

Venkatesh K. K, de Bruyn G, Lurie M. N, Modisenyane T, Triche E. W, Gray G. E, Welte A, Martinson N. A. (2012) Sexual risk behaviors among HIV-infected South African men and women with their partners in a primary care program: implications for couples-based prevention. AIDS Behavior. 2012 Jan;16(1):139-50. doi: 10.1007/s10461-011-9941-y.

Asha Saidi Kalula, Farai Nyabadza (2012) A theoretical model for substance abuse in the presence of treatment. South African Journal Of Science 108(3-4). Doi.Org/10.4102/Sajs.V108i3/4.654.

Hargrove J., C. van Schalkwyk & H. Eastwood (2012) BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler. PLoS One. 7(1): e29736. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029736.

Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Ameh JE. (2011) A general model for mortality in adult tsetse (Glossina spp.). Medical And Veterinary Entomology 25(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.00953.x.

Wim Delva, Marlise Richter, Petra De Koker, Matthew Chersich, and Marleen Temmerman. (2011) Sex Work during the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Results from a Three-Wave Cross-Sectional Survey. PLoS One 6(12). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028363.

Brian G Williams, Reuben Granich, Christopher Dye. (2011) Role of acute infection in HIV transmission. Lancet 378(9807). Doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61832-1.

Johnstone-Robertson S, Lawn S. D, Welte A, Bekker L. G, Wood R. (2011) Tuberculosis in a South African prison - a transmission modelling analysis. South African Medical Journal 101(11). PMID: 22272961.

Williams B. G, Abdool Karim S. S, Karim Q. A, Gouws E. (2011) Epidemiological impact of tenofovir gel on the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 58(2). doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3182253c19.

Williams B. G, Lima V, Gouws E. (2011) Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999772.

Kahn J. G, Marseille E. A, Bennett R, Williams B. G, Granich R. (2011) Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for prevention. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999776

Jones L, Akugizibwe P, Clayton M, Amon J. J, Sabin M. L, Bennett R, Stegling C, Baggaley R, Kahn J. G, Holmes C. B, Garg N, Obermeyer C. M, Mack C. D, Williams P, Smyth C, Vitoria M, Crowley S, Williams B, McClure C, Granich R, Hirnschall G. (2011) Costing human rights and community support interventions as a part of universal access to HIV treatment and care in a Southern African setting. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999777.

Granich R, Lo Y. R, Suthar A. B, Vitoria M, Baggaley R, Obermeyer C. M, McClure C, Souteyrand Y, Perriens J, Kahn J. G, Bennett R, Smyth C, Williams B, Montaner J, Hirnschall G. (2011) Harnessing the prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy to address HIV and tuberculosis. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999771.

Granich R, Gupta S, Suthar A. B, Smyth C, Hoos D, Vitoria M, Simao M, Hankins C, Schwartlander B, Ridzon R, Bazin B, Williams B, Lo Y. R, McClure C, Montaner J, Hirnschall G; ART in Prevention of HIV and TB Research Writing Group. (2011) Antiretroviral therapy in prevention of HIV and TB: update on current research efforts. Current HIV Res 9(6). PMID: 21999779.

Auvert B, Mahiane G. S, Lissouba P, Moreau T. (2011) Statistical power and estimation of incidence rate ratios obtained from BED incidence testing for evaluating HIV interventions among young people. PLoS One 6(8). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021149.

Okosun K. O, Ouifki R, Marcus N. (2011) Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waning immunity. Biosystems 106(2-3). doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2011.07.006.

Wim Delva, Roxanne Beauclair, Alex Welte, Stijn Vansteelandt, Niel Hens, Marc Aerts, Elizabeth du Toit, Nulda Beyers and Marleen Temmerman. (2011) Age-disparity, sexual connectedness and HIV infection in disadvantaged communities around Cape Town, South Africa: a study protocol. BMC Public Health 11. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-616.

Delva W, Verguet S, Hargrove J, Williams B, Sheneberger R, Stander T, Welte A. (2011) Treatment-centred prevention: an integrated biomedical and social approach to HIV prevention. AIDS 25(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283488503.

Williams B. G, Wood R, Dukay V, Delva W, Ginsburg D, Hargrove J, Stander M, Sheneberger R, Montaner J, Welte A. (2011) Treatment as prevention: preparing the way. Journal of the International Aids Society 14(1). doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-14-S1-S6.

Dye C, Bourdin Trunz B, L?nnroth K, Roglic G, Williams B. G. (2011) Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition. PLoS One 6(6). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021161.

Alex Welte, John Hargrove, Wim Delva, Brian Williams, Tienie Stander (2011) How different are the costs and consequences of delayed versus immediate HIV treatment? South African Medical Journal 101(6).

Wallengren K, Williams B. G. (2011) The Incidence and Distribution of Multidrug- And Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis In Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. Clinical Trials 17.

Uys P, Marais B. J, Johnstone-Robertson S, Hargrove J, Wood R. (2011) Transmission elasticity in communities hyperendemic for tuberculosis. Clinical Infectious Diseases 52(12). doi: 10.1093/cid/cir229.

John W. Hargrove, Jean H. Humphrey, Agnes Mahomva, Brian G. Williams, Henry Chidawanyika, Kuda Mutasa, Edmore Marinda, Michael T. Mbizvo, Kusum J. Nathoo, Peter J. Iliff, Owen Mugurungib, the ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2011) Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe. Epidemics 3(2). Doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.004.

Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group. (2011) More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays. PLoS Medicine 8(7). doi:10.1371/annotation/0931760c-95fa-441c-a797-7b410a4c9326.

Reshma Kassanjee, Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, Sheila M. Keating, Marion Vermeulen, Susan L. Stramer, Michael P. Busch. (2011) Seroconverting Blood Donors as a Resource for Characterising and Optimising Recent Infection Testing Algorithms for Incidence Estimation. PLoS ONE 6(6): e20027. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020027.

Lawn S. D, Harries A. D, Williams B. G, Chaisson R. E, Losina E, De Cock K. M, Wood R. (2011) Antiretroviral therapy and the control of HIV-associated tuberculosis. Will ART do it? International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(5). doi: 10.5588/ijtld.10.0483.

Philippe Glaziou, Katherine Floyd, Eline L Korenromp, Charalambos Sismanidis, Ana L Bierrenbach, Brian G Williams, Rifat Atun and Mario Raviglione. (2011) Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 89. doi: 10.2471/BLT.11.087510.

Auvert B, Sitta R, Zarca K, Mahiane S. G, Pretorius C, Lissouba P. (2011) The effect of heterogeneity on HIV prevention trials. Clinical Trials 8(2). doi: 10.1177/1740774511398923.

Tiemersma E. W, van der Werf M. J, Borgdorff M. W, Williams B. G, Nagelkerke N. J. (2011) Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review. PLoS One. 6(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017601.

Torr S. J, Chamisa A, Vale G. A, Lehane M. J, Lindh J. M. (2011) Responses of tsetse flies, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes, to baits of various size. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 25(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.00947.x.

Lawn S. D, Ayles H, Egwaga S, Williams B, Mukadi Y. D, Santos Filho E. D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Granich R. M, Harries A. D. (2011) Potential utility of empirical tuberculosis treatment for HIV-infected patients with advanced immunodeficiency in high TB-HIV burden settings. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(3). PMID: 21333094.

Dunbar R, Lawrence K, Verver S, Enarson D. A, Lombard C, Hargrove J, Caldwell J, Beyers N, Barnes J. M. (2011) Accuracy and completeness of recording of confirmed tuberculosis in two South African communities. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(3). PMID: 21333100.

Parekh B. S, Hanson D. L, Hargrove J, Branson B, Green T, Dobbs T, Constantine N, Overbaugh J, McDougal J. S. (2011) Determination of mean recency period for estimation of HIV type 1 Incidence with the BED-capture EIA in persons infected with diverse subtypes. AIDS Research And Human Retroviruses 26(3). doi: 10.1089/aid.2010.0159.

Andrea A. Kim, Timothy Hallett, John Stover, Eleanor Gouws, Joshua Musinguzi, Patrick K. Mureithi, Rebecca Bunnell, John Hargrove, Jonathan Mermin, Reinhard K. Kaiser, Anne Barsigo, and Peter D. Ghys. (2011) Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods. PLoS One 6(3). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.

Simon P Johnstone-Robertson, John Hargrove, and Brian G Williams (2011) Antiretroviral therapy initiated soon after HIV diagnosis as standard care: potential to save lives? HIV/AIDS - Research And Palliative Care 3. doi: 10.2147/HIV.S7278.

Biccard B.M., Welte A, Kassanjee R. (2011) Is it possible to decrease the incidence of peri-operative stroke associated with acute peri-operative beta-blocker administration? Anaesthesia 66(2). doi:10.1111/j.1365-2044.2010.06617.x.

Nicolas Bacaër, Carel Pretorius, Bertran Auvert (2010) An Age-Structured Model for the Potential Impact of Generalized Access to Antiretrovirals on the South African HIV Epidemic. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 72(2180). doi:10.1007/s11538-010-9535-2

Gregson S, Gonese E, Hallett TB, Taruberekera N, Hargrove JW, Lopman B, Corbett EL, Dorrington R, Dube S, Dehne K, Mugurungi O. (2010) HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review Int J Epidemiol 39(5). doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq055.

Kim AA, McDougal JS, Hargrove J, Rehle T, Pillay-Van Wyk V, Puren A, Ekra A, Borget-Alloue MY, Adje-Toure C, Abdullahi AS, Odawo L, Marum L, Parekh BS. (2010) Evaluating the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV Incidence Among Adults in Three Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 26(10):1051-61. doi: 10.1089/aid.2009.0218.

Corbett EL, Bandason T, Duong T, Dauya E, Makamure B, Churchyard GJ, Williams BG, Munyati SS, Butterworth AE, Mason PR, Mungofa S, Hayes RJ. (2010) Comparison of two active case-finding strategies for community-based diagnosis of symptomatic smear-positive tuberculosis and control of infectious tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe (DETECTB): a cluster-randomised trial. Lancet 376(9748). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61425-0.

Bärnighausen T., T. A. McWalter, Z. Rosner, M. L. Newell & A. Welte (2010) HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology. 21(5):685-97. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9e978.

Reuben Granich, Siobhan Crowley, Marco Vitoria, Ying-Ru Lo, Yves Souteyrand, Christopher Dye, Charlie Gilks, Teguest Guerma, Kevin M De Cock, Brian Williams (2010) Highly active antiretroviral treatment as prevention of HIV Journal of the International AIDS Society 13(1). doi:10.1186/1758-2652-13-1.

B?rnighausen T, McWalter T. A, Rosner Z, Newell M. L, Welte A. (2010) HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology 21(5). doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9e978.

John Hargrove and Jean Humphrey for the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2010) Simplified estimation of the long-term specificity of the BED assay to improve estimates of HIV incidence. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses 26(9). doi:10.1089/aid.2010.0009.

Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W, Humphrey J. H. (2010) The benefits of early treatment for HIV. AIDS 24(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833ac860.

A Welte, T A McWalter, O Laeyendecker, T B Hallett (2010) Using tests for recent infection to estimate incidence: problems and prospects for HIV Euro Surveill. 15(24):pii=19589.

Ferrand R, Lowe S, Whande B, Munaiwa L, Langhaug L, Cowan F, Mugurungi O, Gibb D, Munyati S, Williams B. G, Corbett E. L. (2010) Survey of children accessing HIV services in a high prevalence setting: time for adolescents to count? Bulletin of The World Health Organization 88(6). doi: 10.2471/BLT.09.066126.

Desimpel A, Roelens K, Temmerman M, Delva W, De Boeck F, Goethals J and Maes L. (2010) Advies- en hulpvragen van jongeren in verband met seksualiteit. Tijdschrift Jeugdgezondheidszorg 42(2).

Delva W., Michielsen K, Meulders B, Groeninck S, Wasonga E, Ajwang P, Temmerman M, Vanreusel B. (2010) HIV prevention through sport: the case of the Mathare Youth Sport Association in Kenya. AIDS Care 22(8).

Reuben Granich, Christopher Akolo, Christian Gunneberg, Haileyesus Getahun, Phoebe Williams, and Brian Williams (2010) Prevention of tuberculosis in people living with HIV Clin Infect Dis 50 (Supplement 3): S215-S222. doi: 10.1086/651494

B. Betta, T.F. Randolph, P. Irungu, S.O. Nyamwaro, P. Kitala, J. Gathuma, D. Grace, G. Vale, J. Hargrove, J. McDermott (2010) Field trial of a synthetic tsetse-repellent technology developed for the control of bovine trypanosomosis in Kenya Preventive Veterinary Medicine 97(3–4). doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.001

Petra De Koker, Pierre Lefèvre, Francine Matthys, Patrick van der Stuyft, Wim Delva (2010) Barriers to VCT despite 13 years of community-based awareness campaigns in a peri-urban township in northern Limpopo. South African Medical Journal 100(6). doi:10.7196/SAMJ.3941.

Wim Delva, Elodie Yard, Stanley Lüchters, Matthew Chersich, Esther Muigai, Vicky Oyier and Marleen Temmerman (2010) A safe motherhood project in Kenya assessment of antenatal attendance, service provision and implications for PMTCT. Trop. Med. Int. Health 15(5). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010.02499.x

Wood R, Johnstone-Robertson S, Uys P, Hargrove J, Middelkoop K, Lawn SD, Bekker LG. (2010) Tuberculosis transmission to young children in a South African community: modeling household and community infection risks. Clin Infect Dis. 51(4). doi: 10.1086/655129.

McWalter TA, Welte A. (2010) Relating recent infection prevalence to incidence with a sub-population of assay non-progressors. Math Biol. 60(5):687-710. doi:10.1007/s00285-009-0282-7.

Anthony D Harries, Rony Zachariah, Elizabeth L Corbett, Stephen D Lawn, Ezio T Santos-Filho, Rhehab Chimzizi, MCommH, Mark Harrington, Dermot Maher, Brian G Williams, Prof Kevin M De Cock (2010) The HIV associated tuberculosis epidemic-when will we act? The Lancet 375(9729). doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60409-6

Yves Lafort, Diederike Geelhoed, Luisa Cumba, Carla das Dores Mosse L?zaro, Wim Delva, Stanley Luchters and Marleen Temmerman. (2010) Reproductive health services for populations at high risk of HIV: Performance of a night clinic in Tete province, Mozambique. BMC Health Services Research 10(144). DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-10-144.

Dye C, Williams B. G. (2010) The population dynamics and control of tuberculosis. Science 328(5980). doi: 10.1126/science.1185449.

Marinda ET, Hargrove J, Preiser W, Slabbert H, van Zyl G, Levin J, Moulton LH, Welte A and Humphrey J. (2010) Significantly Diminished Long-Term Specificity of the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay Among Patients With HIV-1 With Very Low CD4 Counts and Those on Antiretroviral Therapy J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 53(4). PMID: 20306555.

J. B. Rayaisse, I. Tirados, D. Kaba, S. Y. Dewhirst, J. G. Logan, A. Diarrassouba, E. Salou, M. O. Omolo, P. Solano, M. J. Lehane, J. A. Pickett, G. A. Vale, S. J. Torr, and J. Esterhuizen. (2010) Prospects for the Development of Odour Baits to Control the Tsetse Flies Glossina tachinoides and G. palpalis s.l. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 16(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000632.

Dewan PK, Gupta D, Williams BG, Thakur R, Bachani D, Khera A, Wares DF, Sahu S, Reddy DC, Raizada N, Chauhan LS. (2010) National estimate of HIV seroprevalence among tuberculosis patients in India Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 14(2). PMID: 20074420

Hargrove JW, Humphrey JH; ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2010) Mortality among HIV-positive postpartum women with high CD4 cell counts in Zimbabwe AIDS 24(3). PMID: 20095074

Stanley MF Luchters, Davy Vanden Broeck, Matthew F Chersich, Annalene Nel, Wim Delva, Kishor Mandaliya, Christophe E Depuydt, Patricia Claeys, John-Paul Bogers, Marleen Temmerman (2010) Association of HIV infection with distribution and viral load of HPV types in Kenya a survey with 820 female sex workers. Luchters et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 10(18). doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-18.

Montaner J. S, Lima V. D, Williams B. G. (2010) Evaluating outcomes of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in Africa. Annals of International Medicine 152(2). doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-152-2-201001190-00019.

Reuben Granich, Siobhan Crowley, Marco Vitoria, Ying-Ru Lo, Yves Souteyrand, Christopher Dye, Charlie Gilks, Teguest Guerma, Kevin M De Cock, Brian Williams (2010) Cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillence: a benchmarking of approaches for estimating the 'mean duration of recent infection.' Journal of the International AIDS Society 13(1).

Timothy D. Mastro, Andrea A. Kim, Timothy Hallett, Thomas Rehle, Alex Welte, Oliver Laeyendecker, Tom Oluoch, and Jesus M. Garcia-Calleja. (2010) Estimating HIV Incidence in Populations Using Tests for Recent Infection: Issues, Challenges and the Way Forward. Journal of HIV/AIDS Surveillance and Epidemiology 2(1).

Delva W, Vercoutere A, Loua C, Lamah J, Vansteelandt S, De Koker P, Claeys P, Temmerman and Annemans L (2009) Psychological Well-Being And Socio-Economic Hardship Among Aids Orphans And Other Vulnerable Children In Guinea. AIDS Care-Psychological And Socio-Medical Aspects Of AIDS/HIV 21(12). doi: 10.1080/09540120902887235.

Guy R, Gold J, Garcia Calleja J. M, Kim A. A, Parekh B, Busch M, Rehle T, Hargrove J. W, Remis R. S, Kaldor JM. (2009) Accuracy of serological assays for detection of recent infection with HIV and estimation of population incidence: a systematic review. Lancet Infectious Diseases 9(12). doi:

Thomas A. McWalter, and Alex Welte (2009) A Comparison of Biomarker Based Incidence Estimators PLoS ONE 4(10): e7368. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007368

Brian G. Williams, Alex Welte, Bertran Auvert, and John Hargrove (2009) Consequences of Early Treatment for Individuals at Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Clin Infect Dis. (2009) 49 (7). doi: 10.1086/605598

Mary-Ann Davies, Olivia Keiser, Karl Technau, Brian Eley, Helena Rabie, Gilles van Cutsem, Janet Giddy, Robin Wood, Andrew Boulle, Matthias Egger, Harry Moultrie, (2009) Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: The IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration S Afr Med J 99(10). PMCID: PMC2925142.

Hargrove, John W (2009) BED estimates of HIV incidence must be adjusted AIDS: 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832f3d8b

Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, and Till B?rnighausen. (2009) Reply to ?Should biomarker estimates of HIV incidence be adjusted??. AIDS 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832eff59.

Wim Delva, Carel Pretorius, Marleen Temmerman (2009) Is scaling up enough to curb the HIV epidemic in southern Africa? South African Medical Journal 99(9).

Hankins C, Hargrove Jw, Williams Bg, Raddad La, Auvert B, Bollinger L, Dorrington R, Ghani A, Gray R, Hallet T, Kahn Jg, Lohse N, Nagelkerke N, Porco T, Schmid G, Stover J, Weiss H, Welte A, White P, White R. (2009) Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making? PLoS Med 6(9): e1000109. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000109.

Morna Cornell, Karl Technau, Lara Fairall, Robin Wood, Harry Moultrie, Gilles van Cutsem, Janet Giddy, Lerato Mohapi, Brian Eley, Patrick Macphail, Hans Prozesky, Helena Rabie, Mary-Ann Davies, Nicola Maxwell, Andrew Boulle (2009) Monitoring the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme, 2003 - 2007: The IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration S Afr Med J. 99(9). PMCID: PMC2864850

Ferrand RA, Corbett EL, Wood R, Hargrove J, Ndhlovu CE, Cowan FM, Gouws E, Williams BG. (2009) AIDS among older children and adolescents in Southern Africa: projecting the time course and magnitude of the epidemic AIDS. 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833016ce.

Jenny M. Lindh, Steve J. Torr, Glyn A. Vale, and Mike J. Lehane. (2009) Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Artificial Visual Baits for Controlling the Tsetse Fly Glossina fuscipes fuscipes. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 3(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000474.

Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, and Till Bärnighausen (2009) A Simplified Formula for Inferring HIV Incidence from Cross-Sectional Surveys Using a Test for Recent Infection AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 25(1): doi: 10.1089/aid.2008.0150

Pieter W. Uys, Paul D. van Helden and John W. Hargrove (2009) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model. J. R. Soc. Interface 6. doi:10.1098/rsif.2008.0184

Till Bärnighausen , Claudia Wallrauch, Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, Nhlanhla Mbizana, Johannes Viljoen, Natalie Graham, Frank Tanser, Adrian Puren, Marie-Louise Newell (2009) HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing. PLoS ONE 3(11): e3640. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0003640

Pretorius C, Bacaer N, Williams B. G, Robin W, Ouifki R. (2009) On the Relationship between Age, Annual Rate of Infection, and Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a South African Township. Clinical Infectious Diseases 48(7). DOI: 10.1086/597357.

Nyabadza Farai, Mukwembi Simon, Rodrigues Bernardo Gabriel. (2009) A tuberculosis model: The case of ?reasonable? and ?unreasonable? infectives. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 388(10). Doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.039.

Omolo M. O, Hassanali A, Mpiana S, Esterhuizen J, Lindh J, Lehane M. J, Solano P, Rayaisse J. B, Vale G. A, Torr S. J, Tirados I. (2009) Prospects for developing odour baits to control Glossina fuscipes spp., the major vector of human African trypanosomiasis. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 3(5). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000435.

Pieter W. Uys, Robin Warren, Paul D. van Helden, Megan Murray, and Thomas C. Victor. (2009) Potential of Rapid Diagnosis for Controlling Drug-Susceptible and Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Communities Where Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections Are Highly Prevalent J Clin Microbiol 47(5). doi: 10.1128/JCM.02289-08

Vale G. A. (2009) Prospects for controlling trypanosomosis. Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research 76(1). PMID: 19967927.

Brian Gerard Williams, David Ginsburg, Julio Montaner, Tienie Stander, Alex Welte (2009) Achieving South Africa's national strategic plan for HIV/AIDS. The Lancet 373(9667). doi/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60547-X.

Tinevimbo Shiri and Alex Welte (2008) Transient antiretroviral therapy selecting for common HIV-1 mutations substantially accelerates the appearance of rare mutations Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 5(25). doi:10.1186/1742-4682-5-25

Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W (2008) The Case For Early Antiretroviral Therapy For HIV/AIDS Quest 4(3).

Bacaër N, Ouifki R, Pretorius C, Wood R, Williams B. (2008) Modelling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township J Math Biol 57(4). doi: 10.1007/s00285-008-0177-z.

F. Nyabadza (2008) On the complexities of modeling HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa Mathematical Modelling And Analysis 13(4). doi:10.3846/1392-6292.2008.13.539-552.

Bertran Auvert , Elliot Marseille, Eline L. Korenromp, James Lloyd-Smith, Remi Sitta, Dirk Taljaard, Carel Pretorius, Brian Williams, James G. Kahn (2008) Estimating the Resources Needed and Savings Anticipated from Roll-Out of Adult Male Circumcision in Sub-Saharan Africa PLoS ONE 3(8): e2679. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002679

Pheiffer C, Carroll N.M, Beyers N, Donald P, Duncan K, Uys P, and Van Helden P. (2008) Time to detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in BACTEC systems as a viable alternative to colony counting. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 12(7): PMID:18544206

Pieter W Uys, Paul D van Helden, and John W Hargrove (2008) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model J R Soc Interface 6(30). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0184

R. Ouifki, A. Welte, and C. Pretorius (2008) A model of HIV infection with two viral strains and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte response under structured treatment interruptions South African Journal of Science 104(5-6).

Alex Welte (2008) Relating incidence to recent infection prevelance: Application to HIV. South African Journal of Science 104.

Farai Nyabadza (2008) Modelling HIV/AIDS prevention by defense International Journal of Medical, Health, Biomedical, Bioengineering and Pharmaceutical Engineering 2(3).

Nicolas Bacaër, Rachid Ouifki, Carel Pretorius, Robin Wood, Brian Williams (2008) Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township J. Math. Biol. 57(557). doi:10.1007/s00285-008-0177-z.

Torr S. J, Della Torre A, Calzetta M, Costantini C, Vale G. A (2008) Towards a fuller understanding of mosquito behaviour: use of electrocuting grids to compare the odour-orientated responses of Anopheles arabiensis and An. quadriannulatus in the field Medical And Veterinary Entomology 22: 93-108. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2008.00723.x

Rachid Ouifkia, Gareth Witten. (2008) Stability analysis of a model for HIV infection with RTI and three intracellular delays. Biosystems 95(1). Doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2008.05.027.

Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The effect of diagnostic delays on the drop-out rate and the total delay to diagnosis of tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933

Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The Effect of Diagnostic Delays on the Drop-Out Rate and the Total Delay to Diagnosis of Tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933

Farai Nyabadza (2008) Modelling the role of prophylaxis in malaria prevention International Journal Of Biological And Medical Sciences 1(1).

Hargrove John W, Humphrey Jean H, Mutasa Kuda, Parekh Bharat S, McDougal J Steve, Ntozini Robert, Chidawanyika Henry, Moulton Lawrence H, Ward Brian, Nathoo Kusum, Iliff Peter J, Kopp Ekkehard (2008) Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay AIDS 22(4). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f2a960

Nicolas Bacaera, Rachid Ouifkib (2007) Growth rate and basic reproduction number for population models with a simple periodic factor. Mathematical Biosciences 210(2). doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2007.07.005

Hargrove, J. W, Williams, B.G. (2007) Income inequality and HIV prevalence. Response to: Piot P, Greener R, Russell S Squaring the circle: AIDS, Poverty and Human Development PLoS Medicine Vol. 4, No. 10, e314 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040314

J. H. Humphrey, K. J. Nathoo, J. W. Hargrove, P. J. Iliff, K. E. Mutasa, L. H. Moulton, H. Chidawanyika, L. C. Malaba, L. S. Zijenah, P. Zvandasara, R. Ntozini, C. D. Zunguza, B. J. Ward, and the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2007) HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevelance and associated risk factors among postnatal woman in Harare Epidemiol. Infect. 135. doi:10.1017/S0950268806007709

Tavengwa NV, Piwoz EG, Iliff PJ, Moulton LH, Zunguza CD, Nathoo KJ, Hargrove JW; ZVITAMBO Study Group, Humphrey JH. (2007) Adoption of safer infant feeding and postpartum sexual practices and their relationship to maternal HIV status and risk of acquiring HIV in Zimbabwe. Trop Med Int Health 12(1). doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01758.x

Azam JM, Pang X, Are EB, Pulliam JRC, Ferrari MJ () Models and modelling practices for assessing the impact of outbreak response interventions to human vaccine-preventable diseases (1970-2019) - A systematic review Medrxiv Preprint

DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis